🗓️ The Daily Ledger - 24 & 25 May 2025

zacharymenzies
May 25
3 min read

This weekend’s stories focus on pressure points across politics, trade, tech, and jobs. From tariff threats and falling productivity to Google's big AI reveal and another major UK media deal, these headlines show how fast market assumptions are shifting.

🌐 1. Trump Threatens 50% Tariffs on EU Imports

What happened: Donald Trump has threatened to impose 50 percent tariffs on European imports, escalating pressure as trade talks with the EU stall. Apple has also been warned of a 25 percent levy on goods made outside the US.

Why it matters: This could reignite a transatlantic trade war and create volatility in global supply chains, particularly in tech and autos.

My Insight: European equities and exporters could see near-term pressure. Diversification across trade blocs may become more important than ever.

What to Watch: EU responses and any early moves from corporates looking to shift production or hedge exposure.

🤖 2. Google Doubles Down on AI at Developer Conference

What happened: At its developer conference, Google signalled a major strategic shift toward AI, with co-founder Sergey Brin making a surprise appearance. The company showcased tools powered by its Gemini model and received positive feedback for updates to its AI ecosystem.

Why it matters: This positions Google to compete more directly with OpenAI and Anthropic as the battle for AI platforms intensifies.

My Insight: AI leadership is becoming a defining factor in Big Tech performance. Investors should track who’s winning on both infrastructure and user trust.

What to Watch: The pace of product adoption and monetisation — especially in cloud, search, and enterprise tools.

📉 3. UK Private Sector Productivity Falls Below Pre-2008 Levels

What happened: New figures show that productivity in the UK’s private sector has fallen below both pre-pandemic and pre-financial crisis benchmarks. The data underscores the scale of the economic challenge facing Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Why it matters: Low productivity constrains wage growth, competitiveness, and the UK’s long-term growth outlook.

My Insight: This could weigh on equity returns and fiscal policy alike. Investment in innovation and infrastructure will be key to reversing the trend.

What to Watch: Whether upcoming policy from the Treasury prioritises capital investment or skills-based initiatives.

📣 4. RedBird Buys Telegraph Newspaper for £500mn

What happened: US media and sports investment firm RedBird has agreed to acquire the Telegraph newspaper for £500 million, marking another major American acquisition of UK media.

Why it matters: The deal reflects ongoing consolidation in legacy media and growing US interest in British news assets.

My Insight: Media remains investable — but strategy and monetisation models are shifting fast. Expect valuations to favour digital-first assets with loyal audiences.

What to Watch: Whether the new owners restructure operations or use the Telegraph to expand into broadcast or digital content plays.

💼 5. Booz Allen to Cut 2,500 Jobs Amid Profit Pressure

What happened: Consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton is cutting 2,500 roles following a fall in profits tied to reduced federal contract volumes under Trump’s new budget.

Why it matters: This signals changing demand for public sector advisory services and potential softness in US consulting margins.

My Insight: Investors exposed to the consulting sector should be watching revenue mix and client concentration — especially in government-heavy models.

What to Watch: Whether other major US consultancies follow suit or signal similar risks to forward guidance.

💰 6. OnlyFans in Early Talks for $8bn Sale

What happened: OnlyFans has reportedly begun early talks with potential buyers about a possible $8 billion sale. The platform, known for its creator-led subscription model, has grown rapidly in recent years but faces regulatory and brand challenges.

Why it matters: A sale at this valuation would confirm the continued power of platform economics and creator monetisation — even in niche or controversial sectors.

My Insight: Creator economy platforms are becoming more institutional. Investors should assess not just scale, but how defensible and adaptable these models are.

What to Watch: Deal structure and whether private equity or media buyers lead the race for acquisition.